The Guardian: Ballot debacle predicted for November 4

A "perfect storm" could be building for US election day on November 4 because of a combination of sky-high voter interest, new ballot machines and a shortage of poll staff, the independent Pew group warned yesterday. The launch of the 77-page report came as legal clashes over voter registration and hours-long queues formed outside booths set up for early voting in states across the US. Voting is now underway in 46 of the 50 states, though election day is still almost a fortnight away.

Virginia, a battleground state, said it will step up security at polling booths on November 4. Election officials fear trouble because of passions aroused by the election, by long queues, or by people being told they are not eligible to vote. Doug Chapin, director of Pew's electionline.org, said: "People talk about meltdown. It is over-optimistic to think that 130 million people can vote and something does not go wrong ... We have spent eight years sorting the plumbing, but on November 4 we are going to crank up the system."

The excitement created by Barack Obama could result in a record turnout, with African-Americans and young voters, both previously less likely to vote, predicted to cast ballots in large numbers this time round. New voters are registering in record numbers in almost every state. Officials in Virginia recently ordered 200,000 more voter registration forms. Thousands of lawyers are being recruited by Obama and John McCain to police polling booths, offering advice to supporters denied the vote or challenging the eligibility of rivals.

Yesterday's report, Election preview 2008: what if we had an election and everyone came?, says: "Eight years after the uncovered problems in the 2000 election and more than five years after the creation of the Help America Vote Act of 2002, millions of Americans will head to the polls on November 4 in what many are predicting will be the highest-turnout election in recent memory.

"Like the infamous Nor'easter that sank the Andrea Gail, another perfect storm may be brewing, only this one has the potential to combine a record turnout with an insufficient number of poll workers and a voting system still in flux."

Election officials are struggling in some places to recruit the tens of thousands of extra staff that will be needed. Another problem for election officials is the electronic voting systems introduced in many states after the "hanging chads" controversy in Florida in 2000. The report notes that voting machines bought only six years ago have been replaced in Florida, California and other states after officials and Congress became concerned about security and reliability. Some states and counties have returned to paper, but with optical scanners that should theoretically allow for faster counting. This amounts to the third change since 2000.

One of the biggest flashpoints is voter registration, particularly in states such as Ohio, Indiana, Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Missouri. Chapin said there is fierce litigation in Indiana and Georgia, where new rules require voters to show photo IDs. Republicans claim this it aimed at preventing vote fraud, while Democrats argue it is a form of voter suppression. The report identifies 12 states where there could be problems on election day: Indiana, Georgia, Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia, and the district of Washington DC. Officials are encouraging early voting and absentee ballots to try to relieve the pressure on November 4.

From The New York Times today:

Flaws in voting machines used by millions of people will not be fixed in time for the presidential election because of a government backlog in testing the machines’ hardware and software, officials say.

The flaws, which have cast doubt on the ability of some machines to provide a consistent and reliable vote count, were supposed to be addressed by the Election Assistance Commission, the federal agency that oversees voting. But commission officials say they will not be able to certify that flawed machines are repaired by the November election, or provide software fixes or upgrades, because of a backlog at the testing laboratories the commission uses.

“We simply are not going to sacrifice the integrity of the certification process for expediency,” said Rosemary E. Rodriguez, the chairwoman of the commission.

As a result, machine manufacturers and state election officials say states and local jurisdictions are forgoing important software modifications meant to address security and performance concerns. In some cases, election officials in need of new equipment have no choice but to buy machines that lack the current innovations and upgrades.

The federal government does not require that states use machines that the commission certifies, but most states depend on the commission to approve new machines and software, and at least 10 states have rules or laws requiring federal certification.

The article does not entertain the possibility that machines should not be used at all.

According to the New York Times,

"Wounds from the Florida recount, still healing for many Democrats, are being ripped open again for some prominent former advisers to Al Gore. They say that a coming HBO film dramatizing the ballot battle after the 2000 election unfairly blames them for the Democrats’ failure to secure the White House.

Warren Christopher, the former secretary of state who served as the public face of the Gore team in the early days of the recount effort, said this week that he believed the film, “Recount,” was “pure fiction” in its portrayal of him as a weak strategist unprepared to stand up to the aggressive tactics of James A. Baker III, the former secretary of state who was the chief Republican adviser....

The film, which has its premiere on May 25 on HBO, stars John Hurt as Mr. Christopher, Tom Wilkinson as Mr. Baker, Mitch Pileggi as Mr. Daley and Laura Dern as Katherine Harris, then the Florida secretary of state. Kevin Spacey plays Ron Klain, the Gore lawyer who led the on-the-ground recount effort and through whose eyes much of the action is seen."

This could be a useful form of advocacy for election integrity reforms. 

CNN reports: 

"With 100 percent of precincts reporting, and 99.7 percent of the vote counted, Medvedev -- President Vladimir Putin's hand-picked successor -- held 70.2 percent of the vote, the Central Election Commission reported.

But Golos, a Russian vote monitoring group, says it has received allegations of multiple voting papers, falsified names on electoral registers, the stuffing of ballot boxes and electoral observers and media being barred from polling stations, AP added.

The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe, the continent's top election watchdog, refused to monitor the balloting because of what it called severe restrictions on its observers by the Russian government. Putin insisted last month that Russia has "fully implemented" all of its commitments to the OSCE."

The Moscow Times explains how some of the fraud is perpetrated:

"Most fraud occurs when election officials compile lists of voters, including people who are not eligible to vote in their district," Golos head Lilia Shibanova said.

Observers at polling stations simply cannot distinguish repeat voters -- who visit numerous polling stations to cast ballots for a candidate backed by authorities -- from real voters, Shibanova said."

The Moscow Times piece contains more examples of fraud and intimidation, and is worth a look.

The leader of Russia's Communist Party has announced he will go to court to contest the election results.